Bitcoin On-Chain Data Aug 9th: Have you prepared for a huge fluctuation?

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Welcome to Barmy’s weekly on-chain analytics episode.

General Information

Bitcoin has been trading in the range of $23,700 – 24,200. From our view, in short term, BTC will reach the important resistance at $26,000. If it breaks, we could see the next crucial level at $28,000.

However, Bitcoin will be likely to drop to the nearest support level at $22,400. Investors should be careful with this level.

Screenshot 2022 08 09 at 11.55.51

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index is at 42.

Screenshot 2022 08 09 at 09.51.39


Overview of the economy

This week, on August 10th, 2022, the US monthly CPI data will be published. One day after this, the US monthly PPI will be published.

On Friday, The US House of Representatives continued to meet to discuss the Inflation Reduction Act which is worth of $740B; On the same day, the UK monthly GDP data for June will be released.

Screenshot 2022 08 09 at 10.18.40

Source: ForexFactory


The Stablecoin Balance on Exchanges Index is at a high of $39.2B.

This number has been increasing, which leads to the prediction that there are increasing numbers of investors who are ready to buy the dip.

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Stablecoins: Balance on Exchanges [STBL] All Exchanges Exchange AllExchanges Currency Resolution 0Days Exchange Balance All Exchanges STBL] Linear Style Line Price [USD] 40B 30-04-2020 06-08-2022 30B Custom Saturday, 62022U Exchange Balance 20B Exchanges [STBL]: 39,238, 10B glassmode May Sep'20 Nov' Jan'18 Mar Jul'18 May Jan'19 Jul'21 Sep Jul'19 Nv'21 Jan'20 Jan Mar Jul'20 May' Jul'22'

Source: Glassnode

The Accumulation Trend Score is an indicator which reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating/distributing coins on-chain in terms of their BTC holdings.

The Accumulation Trend Score as we predicted has steadily decreased after the big hands gathered enough stock and is at the current level of 0.23.

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Bitcoin: Accumulation Trend Score SMA Days Scale Log ·.e[USD] [USD] 7-07-2016 06-08-2022 Custom Saturday, [USD] $22.9 tit Accumulation Score: 0.23382493 glassnode 100 Jul'17 Jan' Trend Score 2014 Jan 2016 Jan Jul'21 Jul'22'

Source: Glassnode

According to data from Glassnode, the Exchange Net Position Change indicator will illustrate the changes in the money supply in the exchange wallet. If the number of coins is increasing then the bars of the indicator will be green and vice versa red.

The Exchange Net Position shows us that the amount of BTC has been still withdrawn from the exchanges and wait for the next bull-run.

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Bitcoin: Exchange Net Position Change [BTc] All Exchanges Exchange All Exchanges Currency BTC SMA Days Scale Log Exchange Net Position Change All Exchanges [BTC] Exchange Position Change 2020 All Exchanges [BTC] 06 2022 Price (USD] Zoom Custom $60k 100K Change $20k Exchanges BTC]: 19,448.04108422 19,448.0 -200K May 20 Jul'20 Sep '20 Nov 20 '21 $8k Mar'21 May Jul'21 Sep Nov 21 Jan'2 Mar 22 May 22 $4k Jul'

Source: Glassnode

Reserve Risk is a Bitcoin chart that allows us to visualise the confidence amongst long-term bitcoin holders relative to the price of Bitcoin at a given moment in time. When confidence is high and the price is low then there is an attractive risk/reward to invest in Bitcoin at that time (green zone).

The Reserve Risk Index is also gradually increasing again after hitting the bottom of the bottom with this parameter but still at a low level.

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Bitcoin: Reserve Risk Resolution Day SMA Days Scale Log Style Line Reserve Risk Price USD] 07-07-2016 06-08-2022 Custom 0.01 .006 $80k 0.002 $10k Massnone 0.0008 Jul'17 Jul'18 2012 Jan' Jul'19 2014 Jan'20 $800 Jul'20 2016 Jan'21 Jul'21 Jan'22 $400'

Source: Glassnode

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap.
Assuming that the latest coin movement is the result of a purchase, NUPL indicates the total amount of profit/loss in all the coins represented as a ratio. It could be interpreted as the ratio of investors who are in profit.

The NUPL Index is returning to the ‘ORANGE’ Level (Hope) mark as the BTC price is moving above the 23k level (The bottom fishing areas below 18k and above are all profitable).

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Resolution Day SMA Days Scale Log Chart Style Line Profit/Loss Price[USD] 0.7 18-10-2019 06-08-2022 06-08 Zoom Custom 0.3 $60k $20k -0.3 Capitulation Hope Jul'20 Optimism Anxiety $8k Jan'21 Belief-Denial Apr'21 Euphoria Greed Oct Jan 22 Apr $4k Jul'22'

Source: Glassnode

The MVRV combined index with Realized Price shows that when the Market price of BTC falls below the Realized Price, it will create a red zone on the chart and in the past 2 times, the market has had very strong growth.

Có thể là hình ảnh về văn bản cho biết 'Bitcoin: Realized Price and MVRV 5y $40k $10k $2k $400 Jan Jul'18 Jan 19 Jul'19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul'21 Jan 22 Jul 22'

Source: Glassnode

So, based on this metric, the investors could have a big hope that they could see a strong recovery in the near future.


Some on-chain data show positive signals from the market. It is a great time to start DCA for long-term holders. However, scalping-style traders should be more careful with this current volatile market.

All information above is NOT financial advice. Please do your own research.


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