Welcome to Barmy’s on-chain analytics.
After recovering from a low of $17,600, BTC is now moving sideways in a range of $20,000 – $22,000.
Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index increased slightly to 12. This shows that although there has been some improvement, the market is still very scared.
On-chain data shows miners are selling Bitcoin
It is easily seen from Miner to Exchange Flow Data
Specifically, on June 22, 5,698 BTC were transferred to the exchange. This is the largest level in more than a year.
Besides, the Miners’ Position Index on June 22 also increased sharply.
This index compares the amount of BTC flowing out of the current miner wallet with its 1-year average.
Thereby, the above indicators show that the selling action of miners is happening.
This can be partly explained by the Puell Multiple. Specifically, this metric compares the current miner’s unrealized profit versus a year ago. Thereby it shows the level of profit and loss of the miners of this coin.
If this index is below 0.4 as in recent days, it also means that the profit of miners has decreased very seriously.
This leads to some miners having to sell BTC to maintain operations or have to liquidate all.
However, historically, every time this index gets close to 0.4, it recovers. Thereby bringing the BTC price to recovery.
Some on-chain data shows BTC bottom approaching
Specifically one of them is MVRV Crosses. This indicator measures the MVRV of the Long Term Holder (LTH) and the MVRV of the Short Term Holder (STH).
So what is the MVRV index? MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares the market capitalization and actual capitalization of BTC.
Where Realized Cap is calculated by multiplying BTC price by circulating supply.
However, it differs from the normal market capitalization calculation in that the BTC price here will be taken according to the price of this coin at the last transaction.
This makes Realized Cap more economically realistic when it comes to eliminating the noise of coins that are “hibernating” for a long time.
Currently, two indicators are approaching each other. This leads to a scenario where the MVRV of long-term holders (blue line) will be below the MVRV of short-term holders (red line).
If it happens, it means that the profit of long-term investors will be lower than that of short-term holders.
Historically, periods like these (green areas) have often been associated with BTC price accumulation and recovery.
Besides, if you compare the actual capitalization of short-term (red) and long-term (blue) holders, you will see the same thing.
Specifically, in the past, every time the red line cut below the blue line, BTC entered the accumulation and recovery phase.
Currently, this scenario looks imminent as these 2 lines are about to intersect.
Looking at the miners’ indicators, we could see miners selling actions.
Next to the MVRV Crosses indicator shows that the bottom of BTC is approaching.
Also, some on-chain data shows that BTC has reached a buy zone and possibly bottomed out.
All information above is NOT financial advice. Please do your own research.